Archive for July, 2009

Responses to “Pickens Plan – RIP?” from Linked-In

July 14, 2009

Lots of strong responses to my recent “Pickens Plan – RIP?” post – positive and negative – over on Linked-In. Here they are – sorry the list is not so convenient. [Any suggstions on how to drive the comments over here, instead of the Linked-In group discussion sites?]

You are right on the money !
I just spent a few weeks in Portugal, a country about the size of Maine.
Five years ago, when I was there last, there was not a single windmill for electrical generation in sight.
Today, within 5 years, they are everywhere you look…in fact, hard to avoid seeing one.
If they can do it, why can’t we? By the way, Regular Gasoline there costs about US$7.25 a gallon. Maybe they are just more “motivated”.
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Your last tid-bit says it all. The greens want wind power, but they HATE transmission lies. It takes YEARS to overcome the nimbys. This article
http://www.scragged.com/articles/must-we-freeze-in-the-dark.aspx
that the anti-energy folks won’t be satisfied until we’re freezing in the dark.
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I would agree but keeping the idea on the public’s mind and wallet are the key. Make alternative energy options affordable is also important.
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Yes, yo-yo’ing petroleum prices aren’t a good environment for the green energy revolution the world needs as a matter of urgency.
I sincerely hope the Pickens Plan will come to fruition eventually. Meanwhile, many other plans for renewables schemes of all shapes and sizes are afoot.
For examples see http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jun/16/solar-power-europe-africa and http://prowa.org.uk/ – there are hundreds of others, of course.
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Brother Brothers!
Do you read entire statements and articles or just enough to form a reaction? Your reports pronouncing the demise of the Pickens Plan and Wind Power in general are greatly exaggerated.
I am no fan of “Big Wind” or any remote power generation schema at all, yet this is simply the realistic reaction of a businessman to the need for transmission lines, which will not arrive for at least three years, at which time installation of his giant wind farms will resume. In the big picture, such delays are minuscule.
Personally, I hope the new grid never arrives. My schema is 100% localised power generation via Small-Wind, Micro-Hydro, Micro-Tidal, Co-Generation, Heat Exchange, Small Geothermal, Waste Fermentation, Small Solar, etcetera.
We will be instrumental in the wind aspect. Examine greenwindmill.com to see a small part of what we are doing to that end.
Peter Sharma III, founder and chair
sirius/pureprophet, ltd.
http://www.greenwindmill.com
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REPLY by BOB BROTHERS
Almost touche’ Peter, but the ‘update’ included in my post rounds out the story.
Re the question of power via The Grid vs power from local sources, I’m keeping an open mind while the economics jury is still out. Living off-grid may be an attractive alternative for some wealthy or dedicated individuals (and a nice business for entrepreneurs), but, in the 300+Million person national aggregate, local sources will have to make big strides in cost, reliability, and convenience to overcome the grid’s economies of scale.
Bigger picture — I filled up my little Honda yesterday with $2.12 gas, surrounded by Hummers, big SUVs and pick-ups, emphasizing the most important point of my post, that cheap oil removes most of the incentives for green energy, off-grid or on.

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Quote: “cheap oil removes most of the incentives for green energy” – absolutely! Groups such as Friends of the Earth have been saying this for more then 20 years! In any case, the era of cheap oil will soon be over, and once it is over the green energy revolution can begin in earnest.
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Our Sirius Green Windmill, grid tied, currently provides a negative-net-metered solution for householders at under $6K and with mass manufacturing, we’ll bring that down to around $2K prior to Q2 of 2010. At this price point, we trump cheap oil with ease. Localisation does not require destruction of the local grid, just disconnection of the national grid, which is a hazard to the environment and national security.
But y’all can keep spouting old saws that support status quo thought OR you can join those of us who know that this is a national and personal security issue as are Public Option Health-Care, Water Supply Reform, Food Supply Reform, Fiduciary Reform, and Constitutional Preservation…all on the same scale of importance.
I know the members of this group are intelligent; it would be nice to see folks combine this intelligence with wisdom to get smart in application of the power inherent in technocratic allegiance to reform our society before revolution occurs.
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By the way, where did you get gas for $2.12? The rest of the nation is paying $2.30 or above.
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REPLY by BOB BROTHERS
The $2.12 gas was Okla City. Actually saw a couple of stations at $1.99 on Sunday. Back home in the DFW area, it looks to be in the 2.25-2.40 range, unleaded reg pump price.
Also saw a signif number of vehicles with dealer tags – people here are still buying a few cars. Almost all, by informal tabs, were big SUVs and pickups. Fuel effeciency seems soooo 2008.

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Whatever the price of oil, obsolete since the day we started burning it,
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The inconvenient truth about alternative energy is that it has miles to go before it sleeps. Putting up windfarms, solar panels, etc require significant new infrastructure as well as backup generating systems that will cause more pollution than is currently produced, however, the media is ignoring that part of the equasion. There are many alternatives but few are actually sustainable meaning that they are balanced between the environment, economy, and community. Electric vehicles are impractical except in large urban environments. They do not save energy since they must be charged off of the power grid. Adding this burder to the power grid requires significant new additional infrastructure (see above). We MUST attack the issue by stopping the analytical approach and taking a synthesis approach. It is a systemic energy problem, not an alternative energy problem.

However, we as a world population will never agree on how to approach it – the Kyoto attempt and other similiar programs str a farce since they use a political approach which cannot even agree on a problem definition.
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Mr. Pickens business operations have much in common with Mr. Madoff. He is very successfull and others pay for the failures- such as what occurred 20 years ago in northern California (Sacramento County area) where Mr. Pickens “Alternate Energy Sustainment Program” was bought- the results were less than expected and the taxpayers of those communites who bought the program are still paying off the multi-million dollar debt. A position that clearly protects Mr. Pickens and his stockholders but clearly shifts the liability for success or failure onto the clientelle. There are numerous communites in the US with similar results.

Presently a major utility company has partnered with a high tech company in California and the state (with the full support of the Govenor) will be paying millions od tax dollars to develop this new energy technology. Seems they have a great (said with a smirk) energy plan that in summary will…..
1. Deploy satellites into space
2. Collect energy from the sun’s rays
3. Transmit this energy to a ground station, yet to be built, located in Fresno California
4. Redistributed the energy throughout the state

This high tech company……
1. The CEO/President is a former Boeing executive with a background in DoD satellite programs
2. This corporation is located in Manhatten Beach, California- not in the aerospace industrial park but across the street from a city park in a condo complex

While these types of CEO’s and business practices yeald results for the corporations, others are actually developing usable technologies. One company based in Chicago, has re-developed solar cells that are 100+ times more efficient than that currently in use (even in the aerospace industry), cost pennies (literally) to manufacture and eliminates 90% of the hazardous materials used in the present solar systems. The R&D is completed and they are moving into production design.

It is disturbing that while the infrastructure of our communites is falling apart, the promotion of organizations whose value systems are less than outstanding are brought to the forefront as leaders of our community, while the true leaders work quietly, in silence creating the foundation for our success that others may very well in the future claim all rights to.
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Yes, yo-yo’ing petroleum prices aren’t a good environment for the green energy revolution the world needs as a matter of urgency.
I sincerely hope the Pickens Plan will come to fruition eventually. Meanwhile, many other plans for renewables schemes of all shapes and sizes are afoot.
For examples see http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jun/16/solar-power-europe-africa and http://prowa.org.uk/ – there are hundreds of others, of course.
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by Steven Sheiner, Partner at Venture Development Center Inc
The solution is for the government to tax oil so that the price stays above $100 a barrel. That will make alternative energy viable, force automakers to make fuel efficient and alternative fuel vehicles, encourage the development of sustainable mass transit and eliminate the power of the middle eastern countries to dictate foreign policy. As long as oil is relatively inexpensive we won’t migrate to alternatives… simple economics.
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by Bill Holder
Here it is again… http://www.kvnews.com/articles/2009/07/11/news/doc4a577512464fc825586771.txt

The one in North Africa and other places could well become larger with the backing of the mega co.s, but this one in sunny central Washington state appears planned, funded and awaiting permit approval.
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REPLY by BOB BROTHERS
I hope that projects like those cited by Bill Holder will prosper, but history gives sound reasons to be pessimistic. Without some long term energy price umbrella of the sort suggested by Steven Sheiner, the likelihood of alternate energy success will be slim.

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As an advocate of using natural gas as a fuel for vehicles, I would like to put the record straight as far as Mr. Pickens current level of involvement in renewable energy. While there has been delays on the market adoption of an number of renewable energy technologies, this is not to imply that Mr. Pickens has packed up the bag. In fact, he is surging ahead on several political and technical fronts. The following update from the Pickens team will hopefully put the issues in the proper perspective.

QUOTE
Army!

Anyone who wondered about the status of the Pickens Plan or claimed it had lost steam now knows the truth: The Pickens Plan is surging ahead at double-time speed.

Over the two days celebrating the first anniversary of the Pickens Plan, Boone was interviewed by two wire services, a major business magazine, more than a dozen TV stations and four national TV networks. He met with nearly 40 Members of the U.S. House and Senate and participated in the introduction of the NAT GAS Act in the U.S. Senate, sponsored by Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) and co-sponsored by Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) and Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).
You all know this: News media and politicians have very sensitive antennae. They gather around positive momentum and ignore inaction.

The amount of media and political attention Boone attracted in New York and Washington in the last 48 hours is a testament to your hard work.

As an example, Bloomberg reporter Margaret Carlson wrote the following:
Boone Pickens came to Ben’s Chili Bowl, a landmark Washington dive not far from the White House. He brought with him the “Pickens Car” and more importantly the “Pickens Plan,” a blueprint for weaning the U.S. off foreign oil, introduced a year ago.

Carlson also wrote in her Bloomberg piece:
In one year, Pickens got Congress to take notice. Yesterday, Senators Orrin Hatch and Robert Menendez introduced a bill (co-sponsored by Majority Leader Harry Reid) that mirrors legislation working its way through the House. It would extend for 18 years tax credits for natural gas fuel, vehicle and infrastructure (gas stations of the sort Barack Obama supported as a senator) to get more natural gas vehicles into production.

The Washington, DC affiliate of FOX did a great story on Boone’s day in Washington, including his visit with Army members like you at Ben’s Chili Bowl – click here to check it out.

In his article for the Salt Lake Tribune, reporter Robert Burr wrote about the introduction of the Senate NAT GAS Act:
Sen. Orrin Hatch teamed up with T. Boone Pickens on Wednesday to promote legislation that would boost natural-gas-fueled vehicles through tax incentives. The Utah Republican and the Texas oilman — along with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey — say the measure could help curb pollution and create American energy independence at the same time.

“I’ve been very pleased with the growth and use of hybrid-electric vehicles in this country,” Hatch said at a Capitol news conference. “But I’ve been less pleased with the growth of natural gas as a transportation fuel. I believe strongly that we need an extra push to spur on the greater use of natural gas, to get more natural gas vehicles on our roads.”

These two articles and the TV clip are only a sampling of the great coverage Boone and the Pickens Plan have gotten recently – check out more at PickensPlan.com.

The Pickens Plan Army remains on the move! We’re going to need to stay together and continue our momentum to get the NAT GAS Act passed in the House and Senate and signed into law by President Obama. Click here to contact your Members of Congress today.
http://www.capwiz.com/pickensplan/issues/alert/?alertid=13702871&type=CO

UNQUOTE
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REPLY by BOB BROTHERS
Thanks, Barry, for the update from the Pickens perspective. Looks now as if the original wire service story was a bit sensationalized, even thought the “update” included in my originial post backed off considerably from the original.

Bigger picture — I filled up my Honda with $2.12 gas yesterday, emphasizing the main point of my post about yo-yo’ing energy prices – cheap oil removes much of the incentive for alternative energy, Pickens’ Plan or anyone else’s.

Pickens Plan, RIP?

July 8, 2009

Like him or not, T Boone Pickens has some intriguing and inspiring ideas about our energy future. By putting a considerable amount of his own money where his mouth is, T Boone has done us a great service in at least 2 ways —

1. He has used his ‘bully pulpit’ as one of our richest and most notorious oil men to educate the public that the days of oil are passing – that it’s time to transition to primary energy sources that are keep our Dollars at home and preserve oil for more value-adding uses than moving us from here to there.
2. He has spent big money to prime the alternative energy pump – wind farms for electricity, natural gas as transportation fuel, and publicity to educate and motivate the public. Absolutely (to answer some critics), he would get richer still if his recommendations were carried out, but better, I’d say, that he get rich if it means we all get a better energy and economic future.

And so I was disappointed (but not much surprised) that Pickens is pulling back from many of his wind and natural gas plans.
UPDATE – July 9
Pickens now says the earlier story was wrong. The wind farm project will be delayed until 2013, due to inadequate transmission lines, not cancelled.

As I’ve predicted (here, for instance, and here) more than once, alternative energy developments cannot thrive in an environment of yo-yo’ing petroleum prices. They killed alternative energy 30 years ago, and they are strangling alternative energy today.

“Decrease energy consumption of an intensive process…”

July 2, 2009

From a poster over on Linked-In “Chemcial Industry Networking Forum” group ….
“If you wanted to decrease the energy consumption of an intensive process, how would you use to chose the best renewable energy and energy efficient technogies in such as fast evolving green sector?”

Here’s how I answered. What would YOU say?

Your broad, generalized question has answers on a couple of levels:

1. If you seek to minimize the net amount of energy consumed per unit of output, process designers are very proficient with some fairly well established and mundane-seeming techniques, for example …
– reducing energy waste, eg adding insulation to keep hot things hot and cold things cold, recovering energy when going from higher to lower pressures
– recapturing and reusing energy – generating usable steam from too-hot streams, using excess heat created in one place to power processes in another place
– minimizing the amount of scrap and waste products you produce (It takes just as much energy to make off-spec product that you can’t use.)

2. If your goal is to shift energy supply from traditional to alternative energy sources (eg wind, solar, etc), then the answer may not be so clear. Here are some starter ideas:
– If you need heat energy at moderate temperature (up to a few hundred degrees F) or for refrigeration, consider concentrating solar collectors, with heat storage and supplemental heating, for nights and cloudy days.
– If you need fairly low level electricity capacity for non-critical applications, wind or solar PV, with reliable utility or generator backup.
– Consider using ‘green’ electricity to generate Hydrogen (via electrolysis of water) to use directly in some chem processes, or as a way to store electricity generated from wind or solar.

Following the first path – process optimization – you’re quite likely to create a nice economic pay-off. I’m afraid, however, you’ll have a more difficult time finding an economic win in today’s infant alternative energy business.